Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sean Pierson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Matthew RiddlevsSean PiersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2 · Saturday, December 11, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Sean Pierson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatthew Riddle: WrestlervsSean Pierson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matthew Riddle wins(81.3%)

Actual result: Sean Pierson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Riddle at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Pierson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sean Pierson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matthew Riddle has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Riddle

Red Corner

Sean Pierson

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew RiddleW2 streak

oldest →

vs Greg Soto · Mar 10

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Aug 10

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 11

vs Henry Martinez · Feb 12

vs John Maguire · Nov 12

latest

Sean PiersonW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Apr 11

vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 11

vs Jake Hecht · Jun 12

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 12

vs Kenny Robertson · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew RiddleMetricSean Pierson

3.01

Strikes / min

3.84

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

54%

Strike defense

64%

3.51

TDs / 15 min

0.39

89%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew RiddleSean Pierson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Riddle(6 fights)Sean Pierson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew RiddleTargetSean Pierson

By target zone

13% acc · 89%

Head

40% acc · 77%

14% acc · 3%

Body

63% acc · 13%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

79% acc · 10%

By position

12% acc · 89%

Distance

39% acc · 77%

25% acc · 3%

Clinch

71% acc · 13%

60% acc · 9%

Ground

79% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Riddle rounds

even

Sean Pierson rounds

Round 1Sean Pierson edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

48Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:31Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sean Pierson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:45

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Round 3Sean Pierson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 258

Sig Strikes

112 / 253

12.7%

Sig Str %

44.7%

41 / 266

Total Strikes

148 / 295

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 3

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:45

Ctrl Time

3:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sean Pierson	48 / 81	71 / 109	1 / 1	1
1	Matthew Riddle	5 / 53	5 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Sean Pierson	25 / 61	35 / 72	0 / 1	0
2	Matthew Riddle	11 / 72	17 / 80	0 / 1	1
3	Sean Pierson	39 / 111	42 / 114	0 / 1	0
3	Matthew Riddle	19 / 133	19 / 133	0 / 1	0

Matthew Riddle

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Sean Pierson

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6