Welterweight

3 Rounds

Lance Benoist won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Matthew RiddlevsLance BenoistUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · Saturday, September 17, 2011New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Lance Benoist won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatthew Riddle: WrestlervsLance Benoist: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Matthew Riddle wins(77.7%)

Actual result: Lance Benoist wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Riddle at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Riddle has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Matthew Riddle has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Riddle

Red Corner

Lance Benoist

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew RiddleW2 streak

oldest →

vs Greg Soto · Mar 10

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Aug 10

vs Sean Pierson · Dec 10

vs Henry Martinez · Feb 12

vs John Maguire · Nov 12

latest

Lance Benoist

oldest →

vs Seth Baczynski · Jun 12

vs Sean Pierson · Sep 12

vs Bobby Voelker · Jun 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew RiddleMetricLance Benoist

3.01

Strikes / min

3.68

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

54%

Strike defense

56%

3.51

TDs / 15 min

1.50

89%

Takedown defense

61%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew RiddleLance Benoist

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Riddle(6 fights)Lance Benoist(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew RiddleTargetLance Benoist

By target zone

29% acc · 38%

Head

43% acc · 46%

100% acc · 58%

Body

88% acc · 36%

50% acc · 4%

Leg

88% acc · 18%

By position

6% acc · 4%

Distance

38% acc · 31%

80% acc · 31%

Clinch

82% acc · 23%

74% acc · 65%

Ground

78% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Riddle rounds

even

Lance Benoist rounds

Round 1Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control1:47

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

Round 2Lance Benoist edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control0:43

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:02Control

Round 3Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control4:28

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 51

Sig Strikes

39 / 66

45%

Sig Str %

62%

96 / 133

Total Strikes

116 / 153

4 / 4

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

6:58

Ctrl Time

4:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lance Benoist	14 / 25	43 / 55	0 / 1
1	Matthew Riddle	3 / 6	14 / 20	1 / 1
2	Lance Benoist	16 / 29	54 / 76	1 / 1
2	Matthew Riddle	3 / 13	24 / 39	2 / 2
3	Lance Benoist	9 / 12	19 / 22	0 / 1
3	Matthew Riddle	20 / 32	58 / 74	1 / 1

Matthew Riddle

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Lance Benoist

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4