Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Riddle won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Matthew RiddlevsJohn MaguireUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Matthew Riddle won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatthew Riddle: WrestlervsJohn Maguire: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: John Maguire wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Matthew Riddle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Maguire at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Maguire has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matthew Riddle has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Riddle

Red Corner

John Maguire

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'9"

193.04 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew Riddle

oldest →

vs Greg Soto · Mar 10

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Aug 10

vs Sean Pierson · Dec 10

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 11

vs Henry Martinez · Feb 12

latest

John MaguireL2 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Edwards · Nov 11

SUBvs DaMarques Johnson · Apr 12

vs John Hathaway · Sep 12

vs Mitch Clarke · Jun 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew RiddleMetricJohn Maguire

3.01

Strikes / min

1.41

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

54%

Strike defense

65%

3.51

TDs / 15 min

2.80

89%

Takedown defense

77%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27Δ 1.30 — meaningful gap-1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew RiddleJohn Maguire

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Riddle(6 fights)John Maguire(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.0|Blue -138.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +238.0|Blue -238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew RiddleTargetJohn Maguire

By target zone

18% acc · 49%

Head

30% acc · 81%

35% acc · 13%

Body

0% acc

71% acc · 38%

Leg

78% acc · 19%

By position

21% acc · 67%

Distance

33% acc · 95%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Riddle rounds

even

John Maguire rounds

Round 1Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:21

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:42

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:09

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 163

Sig Strikes

37 / 109

26.7%

Sig Str %

33.7%

74 / 195

Total Strikes

38 / 110

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 6

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:12

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Maguire	12 / 35	12 / 35	0 / 3	0
1	Matthew Riddle	14 / 52	15 / 53	0 / 1	0
2	John Maguire	12 / 36	13 / 37	0 / 1	1
2	Matthew Riddle	10 / 50	33 / 76	1 / 1	0
3	John Maguire	13 / 38	13 / 38	0 / 2	1
3	Matthew Riddle	21 / 61	26 / 66	0 / 2	0

Matthew Riddle

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

John Maguire

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5