Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Riddle won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Matthew RiddlevsHenry MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit · Saturday, February 4, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Riddle won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matthew Riddle wins(77.2%)

Actual result: Matthew Riddle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Riddle at -365 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Riddle has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Riddle

Red Corner

Henry Martinez

Blue Corner

-365

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+328

(23%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'7"

193.04 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew Riddle

oldest →

vs Greg Soto · Mar 10

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Aug 10

vs Sean Pierson · Dec 10

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 11

vs John Maguire · Nov 12

latest

Henry Martinez

oldest →

vs Bernardo Magalhaes · Jun 12

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · Dec 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew RiddleMetricHenry Martinez

3.01

Strikes / min

2.79

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

54%

Strike defense

60%

3.51

TDs / 15 min

0.00

89%

Takedown defense

80%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27Δ 1.49 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew RiddleHenry Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Riddle(6 fights)Henry Martinez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -47.0|Blue +47.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew RiddleTargetHenry Martinez

By target zone

30% acc · 41%

Head

34% acc · 75%

71% acc · 41%

Body

50% acc · 4%

93% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

43% acc · 85%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

91% acc · 14%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Riddle rounds

even

Henry Martinez rounds

Round 1Henry Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns2

Control2:20

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 158

Sig Strikes

67 / 169

48.7%

Sig Str %

38.7%

112 / 200

Total Strikes

70 / 173

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:20

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Henry Martinez	29 / 70	29 / 70	0 / 0
1	Matthew Riddle	14 / 47	14 / 47	0 / 0
2	Henry Martinez	27 / 69	27 / 69	0 / 1
2	Matthew Riddle	30 / 71	30 / 71	0 / 1
3	Henry Martinez	11 / 30	14 / 34	0 / 0
3	Matthew Riddle	30 / 40	68 / 82	2 / 2

Matthew Riddle

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Henry Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3