Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matthew Riddle won · DQ R3

Elo1490

Matthew RiddlevsGreg SotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Matthew Riddle won

DQ · Round 3 · 1:30

Style matchupMatthew Riddle: WrestlervsGreg Soto: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Matthew Riddle wins(82.3%)

Actual result: Matthew Riddle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Riddle at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matthew Riddle has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Riddle (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Riddle

Red Corner

Greg Soto

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew RiddleW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs DaMarques Johnson · Aug 10

vs Sean Pierson · Dec 10

vs Lance Benoist · Sep 11

vs Henry Martinez · Feb 12

vs John Maguire · Nov 12

latest

Greg Soto

oldest →

vs Nick Osipczak · Aug 10

SUBvs Daniel Roberts · Jan 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew RiddleMetricGreg Soto

3.01

Strikes / min

3.21

2.74

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

54%

Strike defense

52%

3.51

TDs / 15 min

1.49

89%

Takedown defense

44%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew RiddleGreg Soto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Riddle(6 fights)Greg Soto(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew RiddleTargetGreg Soto

By target zone

26% acc · 28%

Head

38% acc · 52%

100% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 19%

85% acc · 49%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

21% acc · 11%

Distance

43% acc · 48%

74% acc · 74%

Clinch

67% acc · 48%

41% acc · 15%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Riddle rounds

even

Greg Soto rounds

Round 1Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control2:27

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 2Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns2

Control4:16

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Matthew Riddle edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:53

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 88

Sig Strikes

21 / 39

45%

Sig Str %

53%

92 / 140

Total Strikes

63 / 81

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 4

72%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:36

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Greg Soto	11 / 17	36 / 42	0 / 3
1	Matthew Riddle	29 / 51	43 / 66	1 / 1
2	Greg Soto	7 / 10	17 / 20	0 / 1
2	Matthew Riddle	16 / 28	46 / 64	2 / 3
3	Greg Soto	3 / 12	10 / 19	0 / 0
3	Matthew Riddle	2 / 9	3 / 10	1 / 2

Matthew Riddle

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Greg Soto

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3