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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Alejandro Perez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1369

Elo1495

Matthew LopezvsAlejandro PerezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · Saturday, April 14, 2018Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Alejandro Perez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:42

Style matchupMatthew Lopez: WrestlervsAlejandro Perez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matthew Lopez wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Alejandro Perez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matthew Lopez at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Matthew Lopez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matthew Lopez

Red Corner

Alejandro Perez

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1369

Elo

1495

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matthew LopezL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rani Yahya · Jul 16

vs Mitch Gagnon · Dec 16

KOvs Johnny Eduardo · Jun 17

KOvs Raphael Assuncao · Nov 17

vs Brad Katona · Dec 18

latest

Alejandro Perez

oldest →

vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 18

vs Cody Stamann · Mar 19

KOvs Song Yadong · Jul 19

SUBvs Johnny Eduardo · Oct 21

vs Jonathan Martinez · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matthew LopezMetricAlejandro Perez

3.13

Strikes / min

3.45

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.18

55%

Strike defense

61%

3.32

TDs / 15 min

0.54

71%

Takedown defense

70%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.60evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matthew LopezAlejandro Perez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matthew Lopez(6 fights)Alejandro Perez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -125.5|Blue +125.5

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matthew LopezTargetAlejandro Perez

By target zone

50% acc · 64%

Head

34% acc · 61%

100% acc · 32%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

69% acc · 20%

By position

58% acc · 86%

Distance

42% acc · 89%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

63% acc · 11%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matthew Lopez rounds

even

Alejandro Perez rounds

Round 1Matthew Lopez edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns3

Control2:59

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Alejandro Perez edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:08

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 36

Sig Strikes

44 / 100

60.5%

Sig Str %

40%

32 / 47

Total Strikes

81 / 142

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

37.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:07

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alejandro Perez	8 / 24	45 / 66	0 / 1	0
1	Matthew Lopez	9 / 15	18 / 25	3 / 4	2
2	Alejandro Perez	36 / 76	36 / 76	0 / 0	0
2	Matthew Lopez	13 / 21	14 / 22	0 / 3	0

Matthew Lopez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Alejandro Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12