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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Wiman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1392

Elo1353

Matt WimanvsMac DanzigUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Matt Wiman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matt Wiman wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Matt Wiman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Wiman at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mac Danzig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mac Danzig is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matt Wiman has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Wiman

Red Corner

Mac Danzig

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1392

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt WimanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14

KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19

vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Mac DanzigL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joe Stevenson · Dec 10

vs Efrain Escudero · Apr 12

vs Takanori Gomi · Nov 12

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 13

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt WimanMetricMac Danzig

3.17

Strikes / min

3.39

3.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

51%

Strike defense

57%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

1.20

56%

Takedown defense

46%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt WimanMac Danzig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Wiman(10 fights)Mac Danzig(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.7|Blue -39.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt WimanTargetMac Danzig

By target zone

55% acc · 62%

Head

57% acc · 82%

95% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 18%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

By position

55% acc · 47%

Distance

53% acc · 67%

80% acc · 47%

Clinch

91% acc · 32%

83% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Wiman rounds

even

Mac Danzig rounds

Round 1Matt Wiman edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns2

Control1:12

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:11

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 3Matt Wiman edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control2:43

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 141

Sig Strikes

66 / 107

66%

Sig Str %

60.7%

119 / 169

Total Strikes

193 / 255

2 / 7

TDs

2 / 6

16.7%

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:06

Ctrl Time

4:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mac Danzig	31 / 48	79 / 100	1 / 4	0
1	Matt Wiman	40 / 62	48 / 71	2 / 4	0
2	Mac Danzig	16 / 28	52 / 78	1 / 1	0
2	Matt Wiman	25 / 36	32 / 44	0 / 1	1
3	Mac Danzig	19 / 31	62 / 77	0 / 1	1
3	Matt Wiman	28 / 43	39 / 54	0 / 2	0

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Mac Danzig

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7