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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Luis Pena won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1392

Elo1494

Matt WimanvsLuis PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, June 22, 2019Greenville, South Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Luis Pena won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:14

Style matchupMatt Wiman: WrestlervsLuis Pena: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Matt Wiman wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Luis Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Wiman at +315 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Wiman threatens submissions; Luis Pena has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
Luis Pena has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Wiman

Red Corner

Luis Pena

Blue Corner

+315

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-380

(79%)

1392

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt WimanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Paul Sass · Sep 12

KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13

vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14

vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Luis Pena

oldest →

vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19

vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20

SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20

vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt WimanMetricLuis Pena

3.17

Strikes / min

3.66

3.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.12

51%

Strike defense

51%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

1.17

56%

Takedown defense

48%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt WimanLuis Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Wiman(10 fights)Luis Pena(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -101.2|Blue +101.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +1582.0|Blue -1582.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt WimanTargetLuis Pena

By target zone

11% acc · 8%

Head

58% acc · 97%

75% acc · 13%

Body

75% acc · 3%

95% acc · 79%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 21%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

66% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Wiman rounds

even

Luis Pena rounds

Round 1Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control0:10

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:09Control

Round 2Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:04

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:03Control

Round 3Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 42

Sig Strikes

87 / 148

56.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

28 / 46

Total Strikes

98 / 160

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

7:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luis Pena	35 / 65	38 / 68	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Wiman	8 / 14	10 / 16	1 / 2	0
2	Luis Pena	29 / 40	37 / 49	1 / 1	1
2	Matt Wiman	9 / 15	11 / 17	0 / 1	0
3	Luis Pena	23 / 43	23 / 43	0 / 0	0
3	Matt Wiman	7 / 13	7 / 13	0 / 0	0

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8