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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Wiman won · U-DEC R3

Elo1392

Elo1354

Matt WimanvsIsaac Vallie-FlaggUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Matt Wiman won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Wiman: WrestlervsIsaac Vallie-Flagg: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Wiman wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Matt Wiman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Wiman at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Wiman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Wiman

Red Corner

Isaac Vallie-Flagg

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1392

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt WimanL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Paul Sass · Sep 12

KOvs TJ Grant · Jan 13

KOvs Luis Pena · Jun 19

vs Joe Solecki · Dec 19

KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20

latest

Isaac Vallie-FlaggL2 streak

oldest →

vs Yves Edwards · Feb 13

vs Elias Silverio · Jan 14

vs Takanori Gomi · Apr 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt WimanMetricIsaac Vallie-Flagg

3.17

Strikes / min

5.56

3.57

Strikes absorbed / min

5.60

51%

Strike defense

45%

2.13

TDs / 15 min

0.20

56%

Takedown defense

58%

1.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt WimanIsaac Vallie-Flagg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Wiman(10 fights)Isaac Vallie-Flagg(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.5|Blue -38.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +455.0|Blue -455.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt WimanTargetIsaac Vallie-Flagg

By target zone

64% acc · 72%

Head

59% acc · 64%

88% acc · 21%

Body

90% acc · 24%

63% acc · 7%

Leg

77% acc · 13%

By position

48% acc · 31%

Distance

50% acc · 28%

82% acc · 66%

Clinch

75% acc · 71%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Wiman rounds

even

Isaac Vallie-Flagg rounds

Round 1Isaac Vallie-Flagg edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:32

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:39Control

Round 2Isaac Vallie-Flagg edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control1:06

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:43Control

Round 3Matt Wiman edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control3:27

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 101

Sig Strikes

80 / 121

66%

Sig Str %

66%

104 / 140

Total Strikes

120 / 165

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 5

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:05

Ctrl Time

5:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Isaac Vallie-Flagg	27 / 41	39 / 53	0 / 2
1	Matt Wiman	22 / 28	41 / 47	0 / 1
2	Isaac Vallie-Flagg	35 / 54	45 / 64	0 / 2
2	Matt Wiman	32 / 46	39 / 53	0 / 1
3	Isaac Vallie-Flagg	18 / 26	36 / 48	0 / 1
3	Matt Wiman	14 / 27	24 / 40	0 / 1

Matt Wiman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights10

Isaac Vallie-Flagg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4