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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Sean O'Connell won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1354

Elo1359

Matt Van BurenvsSean O'ConnellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · Sunday, January 18, 2015Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Sean O'Connell won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:11

Style matchupMatt Van Buren: Pressure fightervsSean O'Connell: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean O'Connell wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Sean O'Connell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean O'Connell at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean O'Connell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sean O'Connell is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Matt Van Buren has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Matt Van Buren has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Van Buren

Red Corner

Sean O'Connell

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1354

Elo

1359

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'5"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Van Buren

oldest →

KOvs Corey Anderson · Jul 14

latest

Sean O'ConnellL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gian Villante · Jun 14

KOvs Anthony Perosh · May 15

KOvs Ilir Latifi · Jan 16

vs Steve Bosse · Jun 16

KOvs Corey Anderson · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt Van BurenMetricSean O'Connell

7.73

Strikes / min

5.46

6.82

Strikes absorbed / min

6.77

49%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

50%

Takedown defense

30%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt Van BurenSean O'Connell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Van Buren(2 fights)Sean O'Connell(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.5|Blue +4.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -8.0|Blue +8.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt Van BurenTargetSean O'Connell

By target zone

35% acc · 54%

Head

39% acc · 67%

80% acc · 41%

Body

86% acc · 29%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

41% acc · 72%

Distance

36% acc · 61%

76% acc · 28%

Clinch

86% acc · 38%

Ground

50% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Van Buren rounds

even

Sean O'Connell rounds

Round 1Matt Van Buren edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:12

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Matt Van Buren edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns0

Control0:15

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 3Sean O'Connell edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

100 / 212

Sig Strikes

66 / 141

46.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

115 / 227

Total Strikes

109 / 187

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean O'Connell	18 / 39	44 / 66	0 / 1
1	Matt Van Buren	33 / 61	43 / 71	0 / 0
2	Sean O'Connell	19 / 56	34 / 73	0 / 1
2	Matt Van Buren	47 / 100	51 / 104	0 / 0
3	Sean O'Connell	29 / 46	31 / 48	0 / 0
3	Matt Van Buren	20 / 51	21 / 52	0 / 0

Matt Van Buren

Stance—

Height77.0"

Reach—

Fights2

Sean O'Connell

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7