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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Chris Lytle won · U-DEC R3
Elo1490
Matt Serra
Elo1490

Matt SerravsChris LytleUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Chris Lytle won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Serra: WrestlervsChris Lytle: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Chris Lytle wins(54.4%)

Actual result: Chris Lytle wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Lytle at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Chris Lytle has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Chris Lytle has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Serra
Red Corner
VS
Chris Lytle
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-135
(57%)
1490
Elo
1490
52
Age
51
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'11"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SerraNo prior UFC fights on record.
Chris Lytle
oldest →
W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Jul 10
L
vs Brian Ebersole · Feb 11
W
SUBvs Dan Hardy · Aug 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SerraMetricChris Lytle
1.98
Strikes / min
3.76
2.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.03
46%
Strike defense
58%
2.05
TDs / 15 min
0.70
38%
Takedown defense
55%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
2.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.66Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1518Strikes16.1 vs 30.2Takedowns1.8 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.77 vs 1.47Form0.0 vs 1.0
Matt SerraChris Lytle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Matt Serra(1 fights)Chris Lytle(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +48.0|Blue -48.0
Grappler Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SerraTargetChris Lytle

By target zone

64
28% acc · 52%
Head
133
48% acc · 87%
48
81% acc · 39%
Body
20
95% acc · 13%
12
92% acc · 10%
Leg
0

By position

123
42% acc · 99%
Distance
150
51% acc · 98%
1
33% acc · 1%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 2%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Matt Serra rounds
1
even
2
Chris Lytle rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes44
Takedowns0
Control0:00
44Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Chris Lytle edged it
Sig. strikes42
Takedowns0
Control0:00
62Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Chris Lytle edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
47Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
124 / 298
Sig Strikes
153 / 297
41.3%
Sig Str %
50.7%
133 / 311
Total Strikes
172 / 317
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Lytle44 / 9157 / 1050 / 00
1Matt Serra44 / 10451 / 1140 / 00
2Chris Lytle62 / 11068 / 1160 / 00
2Matt Serra42 / 9544 / 980 / 00
3Chris Lytle47 / 9647 / 960 / 00
3Matt Serra38 / 9938 / 990 / 10

Matt Serra

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights1

Chris Lytle

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4