Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Schnell won · S-DEC

Elo1465

Elo1469

Matt SchnellvsTyson NamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Matt Schnell won

S-DEC

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsTyson Nam: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Matt Schnell wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Schnell at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyson Nam is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Matt Schnell has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Tyson Nam has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tyson Nam has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Tyson Nam

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1465

Elo

1469

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Tyson NamL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zarrukh Adashev · Jun 20

KOvs Jerome Rivera · Sep 20

KOvs Ode Osbourne · Aug 22

SUBvs Bruno Silva · Mar 23

vs Azat Maksum · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricTyson Nam

4.07

Strikes / min

3.87

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.97

55%

Strike defense

65%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.00

43%

Takedown defense

87%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-1.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellTyson Nam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Tyson Nam(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.9|Blue +3.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +273.0|Blue -273.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetTyson Nam

By target zone

35% acc · 81%

Head

22% acc · 62%

83% acc · 12%

Body

67% acc · 17%

86% acc · 7%

Leg

86% acc · 21%

By position

39% acc · 98%

Distance

30% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Tyson Nam rounds

Round 1Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

85 / 214

Sig Strikes

58 / 193

38.7%

Sig Str %

29.7%

85 / 214

Total Strikes

58 / 193

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tyson Nam	14 / 45	14 / 45	0 / 0
1	Matt Schnell	19 / 62	19 / 62	0 / 0
2	Tyson Nam	22 / 69	22 / 69	0 / 0
2	Matt Schnell	33 / 75	33 / 75	0 / 0
3	Tyson Nam	22 / 79	22 / 79	0 / 0
3	Matt Schnell	33 / 77	33 / 77	0 / 0

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Tyson Nam

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8