Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Schnell won · SUB R2

Elo1465

Elo1522

Matt SchnellvsSumudaerjiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Matt Schnell won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:24

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsSumudaerji: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Sumudaerji wins(65.0%)

Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sumudaerji at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Sumudaerji has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Sumudaerji has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Sumudaerji (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Sumudaerji

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1465

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Sumudaerji

oldest →

vs Charles Johnson · Oct 24

vs Mitch Raposo · Apr 25

vs Kevin Borjas · Aug 25

vs Jesus Aguilar · Mar 26

vs Alex Perez · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricSumudaerji

4.07

Strikes / min

4.43

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

2.35

55%

Strike defense

62%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.67

43%

Takedown defense

72%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellSumudaerji

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Sumudaerji(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -56.7|Blue +56.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetSumudaerji

By target zone

51% acc · 77%

Head

61% acc · 64%

100% acc · 11%

Body

91% acc · 17%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

40% acc · 34%

Distance

66% acc · 60%

75% acc · 19%

Clinch

68% acc · 22%

76% acc · 47%

Ground

91% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Sumudaerji rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:03

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Round 2Sumudaerji edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:37

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 81

Sig Strikes

58 / 83

54.5%

Sig Str %

73.5%

79 / 120

Total Strikes

67 / 92

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:40

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sumudaerji	19 / 23	28 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Schnell	13 / 29	27 / 46	1 / 1	1
2	Sumudaerji	39 / 60	39 / 60	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Schnell	34 / 52	52 / 74	1 / 2	1

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Sumudaerji

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8