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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Steve Erceg won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1465

Elo1498

Matt SchnellvsSteve ErcegUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Saturday, March 2, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Steve Erceg won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:26

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsSteve Erceg: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Steve Erceg wins(75.6%)

Actual result: Steve Erceg wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steve Erceg at -485 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Steve Erceg has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Steve Erceg

Blue Corner

+370

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-485

(83%)

1465

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Steve Erceg

oldest →

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Aug 24

vs Brandon Moreno · Mar 25

vs Ode Osbourne · Aug 25

DECvs Tim Elliott · May 26

KOvs Ramazan Temirov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricSteve Erceg

4.07

Strikes / min

4.64

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

55%

Strike defense

55%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.13

43%

Takedown defense

67%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.57

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellSteve Erceg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Steve Erceg(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -32.8|Blue +32.8

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +343.0|Blue -343.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetSteve Erceg

By target zone

26% acc · 82%

Head

40% acc · 71%

20% acc · 5%

Body

82% acc · 26%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

28% acc · 95%

Distance

45% acc · 88%

25% acc · 5%

Clinch

80% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Steve Erceg rounds

Round 1Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Steve Erceg edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 78

Sig Strikes

34 / 72

25%

Sig Str %

43.5%

25 / 84

Total Strikes

34 / 72

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steve Erceg	32 / 67	32 / 67	0 / 1
1	Matt Schnell	20 / 69	23 / 75	0 / 0
2	Steve Erceg	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0
2	Matt Schnell	2 / 9	2 / 9	0 / 0

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Steve Erceg

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9