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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Rogerio Bontorin won · U-DEC

Elo1465

Elo1494

Matt SchnellvsRogerio BontorinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · Saturday, May 15, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Rogerio Bontorin won

U-DEC

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsRogerio Bontorin: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rogerio Bontorin wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Rogerio Bontorin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rogerio Bontorin at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rogerio Bontorin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Rogerio Bontorin

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1465

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Rogerio BontorinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Magomed Bibulatov · Feb 19

KOvs Raulian Paiva · Aug 19

vs Ray Borg · Feb 20

KOvs Kai Kara-France · Mar 21

vs Brandon Royval · Jan 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricRogerio Bontorin

4.07

Strikes / min

2.63

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.27

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

2.90

43%

Takedown defense

51%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellRogerio Bontorin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Rogerio Bontorin(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.4|Blue +29.4

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +45.0|Blue -45.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetRogerio Bontorin

By target zone

37% acc · 58%

Head

55% acc · 79%

84% acc · 32%

Body

50% acc · 6%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

85% acc · 15%

By position

46% acc · 88%

Distance

53% acc · 79%

80% acc · 12%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Rogerio Bontorin rounds

Round 1Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Rogerio Bontorin edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:18Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 135

Sig Strikes

72 / 124

47.3%

Sig Str %

57.7%

113 / 184

Total Strikes

89 / 143

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rogerio Bontorin	20 / 33	20 / 33	0 / 0
1	Matt Schnell	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 0
2	Rogerio Bontorin	21 / 45	21 / 45	0 / 0
2	Matt Schnell	29 / 58	29 / 58	0 / 0
3	Rogerio Bontorin	31 / 46	48 / 65	1 / 1
3	Matt Schnell	14 / 31	62 / 80	0 / 0

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Rogerio Bontorin

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights6