Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Schnell won · S-DEC R3

Elo1465

Elo1491

Matt SchnellvsNaoki InoueUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · Saturday, June 23, 2018Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Matt Schnell won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsNaoki Inoue: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Naoki Inoue wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Naoki Inoue at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Naoki Inoue has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Naoki Inoue

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1465

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Naoki Inoue

oldest →

vs Carls John De Tomas · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricNaoki Inoue

4.07

Strikes / min

3.67

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

55%

Strike defense

60%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.00

43%

Takedown defense

60%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellNaoki Inoue

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Naoki Inoue(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.3|Blue +26.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -112.0|Blue +112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetNaoki Inoue

By target zone

30% acc · 61%

Head

20% acc · 73%

42% acc · 7%

Body

50% acc · 4%

77% acc · 32%

Leg

55% acc · 23%

By position

38% acc · 96%

Distance

22% acc · 88%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Naoki Inoue rounds

Round 1Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 183

Sig Strikes

48 / 196

38.3%

Sig Str %

24%

79 / 192

Total Strikes

64 / 212

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Naoki Inoue	16 / 63	16 / 63	0 / 0
1	Matt Schnell	25 / 59	25 / 59	0 / 0
2	Naoki Inoue	10 / 67	10 / 67	0 / 0
2	Matt Schnell	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 0
3	Naoki Inoue	22 / 66	38 / 82	0 / 1
3	Matt Schnell	23 / 64	31 / 73	0 / 1

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Naoki Inoue

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights2