Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Schnell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1465

Elo1362

Matt SchnellvsMarco BeltranUFC Prediction Result

UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · Saturday, October 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matt Schnell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Marco Beltran wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Beltran at +105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Marco Beltran has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Marco Beltran

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1465

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Marco Beltran

oldest →

vs Marlon Vera · Nov 14

DECvs Ning Guangyou · Nov 15

SUBvs Reginaldo Vieira · Jul 16

SUBvs Joe Soto · Nov 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricMarco Beltran

4.07

Strikes / min

2.07

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

1.93

55%

Strike defense

63%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.70

43%

Takedown defense

46%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellMarco Beltran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Marco Beltran(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +102.8|Blue -102.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetMarco Beltran

By target zone

21% acc · 63%

Head

18% acc · 41%

22% acc · 5%

Body

70% acc · 21%

67% acc · 32%

Leg

68% acc · 38%

By position

27% acc · 92%

Distance

31% acc · 97%

38% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Marco Beltran rounds

Round 1Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marco Beltran edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:16

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 140

Sig Strikes

34 / 109

26%

Sig Str %

31.7%

38 / 140

Total Strikes

45 / 120

0 / 2

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:16

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marco Beltran	11 / 28	12 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Schnell	16 / 52	16 / 52	0 / 1	0
2	Marco Beltran	10 / 37	10 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Schnell	9 / 41	9 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Marco Beltran	13 / 44	23 / 54	1 / 1	0
3	Matt Schnell	13 / 47	13 / 47	0 / 1	1

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Marco Beltran

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5