Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joseph Morales won · SUB R1

Elo1465

Elo1532

Matt SchnellvsJoseph MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Saturday, November 8, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joseph Morales won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:54

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsJoseph Morales: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Joseph Morales wins(57.0%)

Actual result: Joseph Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joseph Morales at -490 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joseph Morales threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Matt Schnell has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Joseph Morales (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Joseph Morales

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-490

(83%)

1465

Elo

1532

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Schnell

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Joseph Morales

oldest →

SUBvs Roberto Sanchez · Aug 17

KOvs Deiveson Figueiredo · Feb 18

vs Eric Shelton · Nov 18

SUBvs Alibi Idiris · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricJoseph Morales

4.07

Strikes / min

2.00

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

55%

Strike defense

57%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

1.14

43%

Takedown defense

26%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

3.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellJoseph Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Joseph Morales(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.0|Blue +67.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetJoseph Morales

By target zone

13% acc · 25%

Head

40% acc · 80%

100% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 40%

Clinch

Ground

75% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Joseph Morales rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:15

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:12Control

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 11

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

36%

Sig Str %

45%

5 / 12

Total Strikes

12 / 18

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

1:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joseph Morales	5 / 11	12 / 18	0 / 0	1
1	Matt Schnell	4 / 11	5 / 12	1 / 1	0

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Joseph Morales

StanceSwitch

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5