Flyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Schnell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1465

Elo1487

Matt SchnellvsJimmy FlickUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Saturday, April 26, 2025Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Matt Schnell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsJimmy Flick: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Schnell wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Schnell at -164 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Schnell enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jimmy Flick threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Matt Schnell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matt Schnell has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Jimmy Flick

Blue Corner

-164

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+138

(42%)

1465

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Jimmy Flick

oldest →

SUBvs Cody Durden · Dec 20

KOvs Charles Johnson · Jan 23

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 23

SUBvs Malcolm Gordon · Jan 24

vs Nate Maness · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricJimmy Flick

4.07

Strikes / min

1.67

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.70

55%

Strike defense

43%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

2.36

43%

Takedown defense

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

3.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04Δ 2.99 — meaningful gap-3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellJimmy Flick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Jimmy Flick(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.5|Blue +22.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetJimmy Flick

By target zone

57% acc · 94%

Head

62% acc · 67%

100% acc · 3%

Body

0% acc

50% acc · 3%

Leg

80% acc · 33%

By position

35% acc · 34%

Distance

50% acc · 67%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

83% acc · 54%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Jimmy Flick rounds

Round 1Jimmy Flick edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:41Control

Round 2Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:28

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 3Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control2:25

1Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 61

Sig Strikes

12 / 20

54.7%

Sig Str %

55.7%

88 / 117

Total Strikes

48 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 7

—

TD %

77.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:53

Ctrl Time

8:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jimmy Flick	8 / 11	33 / 37	2 / 3	0
1	Matt Schnell	6 / 15	20 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Jimmy Flick	3 / 4	11 / 13	1 / 1	1
2	Matt Schnell	18 / 25	46 / 55	0 / 0	1
3	Jimmy Flick	1 / 5	4 / 10	2 / 3	0
3	Matt Schnell	11 / 21	22 / 32	0 / 0	2

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Jimmy Flick

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6