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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Cody Durden won · SUB R2

Elo1465

Elo1458

Matt SchnellvsCody DurdenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Saturday, September 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cody Durden won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:29

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsCody Durden: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cody Durden wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Cody Durden wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cody Durden at -278 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Cody Durden has lost 56% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Cody Durden

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-278

(74%)

1465

Elo

1458

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SchnellL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26

latest

Cody Durden

oldest →

KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25

SUBvs Allan Nascimento · Nov 25

vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26

DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26

SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricCody Durden

4.07

Strikes / min

3.24

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

3.99

43%

Takedown defense

56%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SchnellCody Durden

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.4|Blue -6.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetCody Durden

By target zone

44% acc · 80%

Head

42% acc · 91%

100% acc · 8%

Body

60% acc · 9%

71% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 95%

Distance

44% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Cody Durden rounds

Round 1Matt Schnell edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 83

Sig Strikes

34 / 78

25%

Sig Str %

71%

40 / 83

Total Strikes

37 / 81

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Cody Durden	33 / 77	36 / 80	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Schnell	40 / 80	40 / 80	0 / 0	0
2	Cody Durden	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1
2	Matt Schnell	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 1	0

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Cody Durden

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17