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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Alessandro Costa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1465

Elo1543

Matt SchnellvsAlessandro CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Alessandro Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:28

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Alessandro Costa

Style matchupMatt Schnell: Pressure fightervsAlessandro Costa: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alessandro Costa wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Alessandro Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alessandro Costa is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Matt Schnell has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Alessandro Costa has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Schnell

Red Corner

Alessandro Costa

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1465

Elo

1543

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'4"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Schnell

oldest →

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22

KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24

SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24

vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25

SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25

latest

Alessandro CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Steve Erceg · Nov 23

KOvs Kevin Borjas · May 24

KOvs Alden Coria · Sep 25

KOvs Stewart Nicoll · Apr 26

SUBvs Cody Durden · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SchnellMetricAlessandro Costa

4.07

Strikes / min

3.73

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

55%

Strike defense

56%

0.60

TDs / 15 min

0.79

43%

Takedown defense

86%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Schnell(10 fights)Alessandro Costa(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -78.5|Blue +78.5

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SchnellTargetAlessandro Costa

By target zone

29% acc · 63%

Head

89% acc · 84%

50% acc · 13%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

33% acc · 5%

By position

38% acc · 100%

Distance

64% acc · 37%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Schnell rounds

even

Alessandro Costa rounds

Round 1Alessandro Costa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 21

Sig Strikes

19 / 23

38%

Sig Str %

82%

8 / 21

Total Strikes

19 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alessandro Costa	19 / 23	19 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Schnell	8 / 21	8 / 21	0 / 0	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 36% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Matt Schnell

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18

Alessandro Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights8