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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Sheymon Moraes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1414

Elo1374

Matt SaylesvsSheymon MoraesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Saturday, August 4, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Sheymon Moraes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Sayles: Elusive strikervsSheymon Moraes: Striker

Two strikers, different gameplans. Volume vs precision — judges typically favor activity.

Model Prediction: Sheymon Moraes wins(72.6%)

Actual result: Sheymon Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sheymon Moraes at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Sayles threatens submissions; Sheymon Moraes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Matt Sayles has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Sheymon Moraes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Sayles

Red Corner

Sheymon Moraes

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1414

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt SaylesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Nelson · May 19

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 19

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 21

latest

Sheymon MoraesL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Zabit Magomedsharipov · Nov 17

vs Julio Arce · Nov 18

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 19

KOvs Andre Fili · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt SaylesMetricSheymon Moraes

4.83

Strikes / min

3.00

2.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

61%

Strike defense

63%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

81%

Takedown defense

53%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.02Δ 2.66 — meaningful gap-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt SaylesSheymon Moraes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Sayles(4 fights)Sheymon Moraes(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.5|Blue -39.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt SaylesTargetSheymon Moraes

By target zone

21% acc · 51%

Head

27% acc · 42%

77% acc · 30%

Body

73% acc · 55%

75% acc · 19%

Leg

50% acc · 3%

By position

30% acc · 87%

Distance

40% acc · 88%

67% acc · 13%

Clinch

82% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Sayles rounds

even

Sheymon Moraes rounds

Round 1Sheymon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:40

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Sheymon Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:14

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Matt Sayles edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:14

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 235

Sig Strikes

73 / 172

31.3%

Sig Str %

42.3%

79 / 237

Total Strikes

77 / 177

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:08

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sheymon Moraes	22 / 50	23 / 51	0 / 1
1	Matt Sayles	16 / 60	16 / 60	0 / 1
2	Sheymon Moraes	30 / 72	30 / 72	0 / 0
2	Matt Sayles	25 / 77	25 / 77	0 / 2
3	Sheymon Moraes	21 / 50	24 / 54	0 / 3
3	Matt Sayles	36 / 98	38 / 100	0 / 0

Matt Sayles

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Sheymon Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5