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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Matt Mitrione
Elo1351

Matt MitrionevsTim HagueUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2 · Saturday, January 22, 2011Killeen, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:59

Style matchupMatt Mitrione: Elusive strikervsTim Hague: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(81.5%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Tim Hague has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Matt Mitrione has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Tim Hague has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
  • Matt Mitrione has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Mitrione
Red Corner
VS
Tim Hague
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
1356
Elo
1351
48
Age
43
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
208.28 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14
W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16
latest
Tim Hague
oldest →
L
vs Joey Beltran · May 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt MitrioneMetricTim Hague
3.55
Strikes / min
2.79
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
4.14
64%
Strike defense
46%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.72
55%
Takedown defense
85%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1527 vs 1487Strikes44.7 vs 23.5Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.33 vs 0.50Form1.0 vs -1.0
Matt MitrioneTim Hague

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Tim Hague(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.2|Blue -5.2
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -140.0|Blue +140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt MitrioneTargetTim Hague

By target zone

11
52% acc · 69%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0% acc
5
83% acc · 31%
Leg
3
100% acc · 100%

By position

10
50% acc · 63%
Distance
3
38% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
5
83% acc · 31%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Mitrione rounds
0
even
0
Tim Hague rounds
Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:14
Knockdowns2
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
16 / 27
Sig Strikes
3 / 8
59%
Sig Str %
37%
17 / 28
Total Strikes
4 / 9
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:14
Ctrl Time
0:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tim Hague3 / 84 / 90 / 30
1Matt Mitrione16 / 2717 / 280 / 00

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13

Tim Hague

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2