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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1356

Elo1490

Matt MitrionevsShawn JordanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kim vs Hathaway · Saturday, March 1, 2014Macau, China

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupMatt Mitrione: Elusive strikervsShawn Jordan: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Shawn Jordan has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Matt Mitrione has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Shawn Jordan has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (54.1%).
Matt Mitrione has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Mitrione

Red Corner

Shawn Jordan

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1356

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

208.28 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt MitrioneL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15

KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16

latest

Shawn Jordan

oldest →

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Oct 13

KOvs Jack May · Aug 14

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Jan 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 15

vs Ruslan Magomedov · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt MitrioneMetricShawn Jordan

3.55

Strikes / min

2.87

2.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.30

64%

Strike defense

47%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.97

55%

Takedown defense

76%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.76Δ 1.19 — meaningful gap-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt MitrioneShawn Jordan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Shawn Jordan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.4|Blue +134.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt MitrioneTargetShawn Jordan

By target zone

35% acc · 83%

Head

21% acc · 53%

50% acc · 4%

Body

50% acc · 7%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

34% acc · 67%

Distance

27% acc · 67%

53% acc · 33%

Clinch

56% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Mitrione rounds

even

Shawn Jordan rounds

Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:21

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 62

Sig Strikes

15 / 46

38%

Sig Str %

32%

25 / 65

Total Strikes

19 / 51

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:21

Ctrl Time

0:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Shawn Jordan	15 / 46	19 / 51	0 / 2	0
1	Matt Mitrione	24 / 62	25 / 65	0 / 0	0

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights13

Shawn Jordan

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10