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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Matt Mitrione
Elo1352

Matt MitrionevsPhilip De FriesUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · Saturday, April 6, 2013Stockholm, Sweden

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:19

Style matchupMatt Mitrione: Elusive strikervsPhilip De Fries: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Philip De Fries has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Philip De Fries threatens submissions; Matt Mitrione has lost 40% of fights by sub.
  • Matt Mitrione has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Philip De Fries has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Mitrione
Red Corner
VS
Philip De Fries
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
1356
Elo
1352
48
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'5"
208.28 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14
W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16
latest
Philip De Fries
oldest →
W
vs Rob Broughton · Nov 11
L
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Feb 12
W
SUBvs Oli Thompson · Aug 12
L
KOvs Todd Duffee · Dec 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt MitrioneMetricPhilip De Fries
3.55
Strikes / min
2.30
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
64%
Strike defense
37%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.29
55%
Takedown defense
100%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76Δ 1.46 — meaningful gap-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1522 vs 1498Strikes31.6 vs 15.8Takedowns0.0 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.57 vs 0.25Form-0.5 vs -0.2
Matt MitrionePhilip De Fries

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Philip De Fries(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.0|Blue -4.0
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt MitrioneTargetPhilip De Fries

By target zone

7
78% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

1
33% acc · 14%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
6
100% acc · 86%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Mitrione rounds
0
even
0
Philip De Fries rounds
Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:03
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 9
Sig Strikes
0 / 2
77%
Sig Str %
0%
7 / 9
Total Strikes
0 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Philip De Fries0 / 20 / 20 / 20
1Matt Mitrione7 / 97 / 90 / 00

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13

Philip De Fries

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5