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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Mitrione won · U-DEC R3
Elo1356
Matt Mitrione
Elo1352

Matt MitrionevsJoey BeltranUFC Prediction Result

UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · Saturday, September 25, 2010Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Mitrione: Elusive strikervsJoey Beltran: Pressure fighter

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -174 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Joey Beltran enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Matt Mitrione has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Joey Beltran has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
  • Matt Mitrione has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Mitrione
Red Corner
VS
Joey Beltran
Blue Corner
-174
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+164
(38%)
1356
Elo
1352
48
Age
44
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
208.28 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14
W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16
latest
Joey BeltranL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Aaron Rosa · Jun 11
L
vs Stipe Miocic · Oct 11
L
KOvs Lavar Johnson · Jan 12
L
vs James Te Huna · Jul 12
L
vs Fabio Maldonado · Oct 13
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt MitrioneMetricJoey Beltran
3.55
Strikes / min
4.92
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
5.27
64%
Strike defense
54%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.48
55%
Takedown defense
75%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1514Strikes29.0 vs 59.5Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts2.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Matt MitrioneJoey Beltran

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Joey Beltran(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.6|Blue -3.6
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt MitrioneTargetJoey Beltran

By target zone

61
45% acc · 80%
Head
35
26% acc · 67%
7
88% acc · 9%
Body
13
81% acc · 25%
8
89% acc · 11%
Leg
4
100% acc · 8%

By position

73
51% acc · 96%
Distance
29
23% acc · 56%
3
38% acc · 4%
Clinch
14
78% acc · 27%
0
Ground
9
82% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Matt Mitrione rounds
0
even
1
Joey Beltran rounds
Round 1Joey Beltran edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:55Control
Round 2Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:43Control
Round 3Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:00
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
76 / 152
Sig Strikes
52 / 157
49.7%
Sig Str %
34.3%
86 / 165
Total Strikes
93 / 207
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 3
—
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
5:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Joey Beltran23 / 5257 / 911 / 10
1Matt Mitrione19 / 3823 / 430 / 00
2Joey Beltran20 / 4523 / 500 / 10
2Matt Mitrione26 / 5328 / 550 / 00
3Joey Beltran9 / 6013 / 660 / 10
3Matt Mitrione31 / 6135 / 670 / 00

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13

Joey Beltran

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8