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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Matt Mitrione won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Matt Mitrione
Elo1481
Derrick Lewis

Matt MitrionevsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi · Friday, September 5, 2014Ledyard, Connecticut, USA

Official fight result

Matt Mitrione won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:41

Model Prediction: Derrick Lewis wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Matt Mitrione wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derrick Lewis at -126 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Mitrione is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Matt Mitrione has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Mitrione
Red Corner
VS
Derrick Lewis
Blue Corner
+116
(46%)
Vegas Odds
-126
(56%)
1356
Elo
1481
48
Age
41
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
208.28 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt MitrioneL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13
W
KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14
W
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14
L
SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jun 15
L
KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16
latest
Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23
W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24
W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25
L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26
L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt MitrioneMetricDerrick Lewis
3.55
Strikes / min
2.46
2.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.57
64%
Strike defense
39%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.55
55%
Takedown defense
52%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.76evenly matched on net striking-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1534 vs 1526Strikes25.9 vs 14.0Takedowns0.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs 1.0
Matt MitrioneDerrick Lewis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Matt Mitrione(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -125.4|Blue +125.4
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +127.0|Blue -127.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt MitrioneTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

7
64% acc · 100%
Head
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

2
67% acc · 29%
Distance
1
100% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
5
63% acc · 71%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Mitrione rounds
0
even
0
Derrick Lewis rounds
Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:07
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 11
Sig Strikes
1 / 1
63%
Sig Str %
100%
9 / 13
Total Strikes
1 / 1
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:07
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Derrick Lewis1 / 11 / 10 / 00
1Matt Mitrione7 / 119 / 130 / 00

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights13

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights31