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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Hughes won · SUB R1
Elo1351
Matt Hughes
Elo1490
Ricardo Almeida

Matt HughesvsRicardo AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Matt Hughes won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:15

Style matchupMatt Hughes: WrestlervsRicardo Almeida: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Matt Hughes wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Matt Hughes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hughes at +178 American odds

+$178 profit

$278 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Hughes threatens submissions; Ricardo Almeida has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hughes (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Hughes
Red Corner
VS
Ricardo Almeida
Blue Corner
+178
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-193
(66%)
1351
Elo
1490
52
Age
49
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt HughesL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Renzo Gracie · Apr 10
L
KOvs BJ Penn · Nov 10
L
KOvs Josh Koscheck · Sep 11
latest
Ricardo Almeida
oldest →
W
SUBvs Matt Brown · Mar 10
W
vs TJ Grant · Dec 10
L
vs Mike Pyle · Mar 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt HughesMetricRicardo Almeida
2.14
Strikes / min
2.02
1.36
Strikes absorbed / min
1.20
53%
Strike defense
61%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
3.74
35%
Takedown defense
31%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1519Strikes23.3 vs 18.6Takedowns2.1 vs 3.1Sub Atts0.68 vs 1.38Form1.0 vs 1.0
Matt HughesRicardo Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Matt Hughes(4 fights)Ricardo Almeida(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -139.0|Blue +139.0
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt HughesTargetRicardo Almeida

By target zone

1
7% acc · 50%
Head
5
25% acc · 50%
0
0% acc
Body
2
40% acc · 20%
1
100% acc · 50%
Leg
3
100% acc · 30%

By position

2
13% acc · 100%
Distance
9
33% acc · 90%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 10%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Matt Hughes rounds
1
even
0
Ricardo Almeida rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:13
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
2 / 16
Sig Strikes
10 / 28
12%
Sig Str %
35%
2 / 16
Total Strikes
10 / 28
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:13
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricardo Almeida10 / 2810 / 280 / 00
1Matt Hughes2 / 162 / 160 / 01

Matt Hughes

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Ricardo Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4