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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Hughes won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1351
Matt Hughes
Elo1490

Matt HughesvsRenzo GracieUFC Prediction Result

UFC 112: Invincible · Saturday, April 10, 2010Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Matt Hughes won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:40

Model Prediction: Matt Hughes wins(80.2%)

Actual result: Matt Hughes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hughes at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hughes (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Hughes
Red Corner
VS
Renzo Gracie
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+340
(23%)
1351
Elo
1490
52
Age
59
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt HughesL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ricardo Almeida · Aug 10
L
KOvs BJ Penn · Nov 10
L
KOvs Josh Koscheck · Sep 11
latest
Renzo GracieNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt HughesMetricRenzo Gracie
2.14
Strikes / min
1.71
1.36
Strikes absorbed / min
1.67
53%
Strike defense
55%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
1.13
35%
Takedown defense
40%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.78evenly matched on net striking+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes21.1 vs —Takedowns2.2 vs —Sub Atts0.71 vs —Form0.0 vs 0.0
Matt HughesRenzo Gracie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Matt Hughes(4 fights)Renzo Gracie(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.9|Blue +138.9
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt HughesTargetRenzo Gracie

By target zone

32
40% acc · 46%
Head
16
19% acc · 47%
6
100% acc · 9%
Body
14
78% acc · 41%
32
89% acc · 46%
Leg
4
80% acc · 12%

By position

50
50% acc · 71%
Distance
29
28% acc · 85%
19
86% acc · 27%
Clinch
5
83% acc · 15%
1
100% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Hughes rounds
2
even
0
Renzo Gracie rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:52
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:10
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Matt Hughes edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns0
Control0:43
Knockdowns2
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
70 / 123
Sig Strikes
34 / 109
52%
Sig Str %
30%
71 / 124
Total Strikes
34 / 109
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:45
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Renzo Gracie11 / 3111 / 310 / 00
1Matt Hughes11 / 2712 / 280 / 00
2Renzo Gracie16 / 4616 / 460 / 10
2Matt Hughes16 / 3416 / 340 / 10
3Renzo Gracie7 / 327 / 320 / 00
3Matt Hughes43 / 6243 / 620 / 00

Matt Hughes

StanceSwitch
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Renzo Gracie

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach—
Fights1