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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Josh Koscheck won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1351

Elo1354

Matt HughesvsJosh KoscheckUFC Prediction Result

UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · Saturday, September 24, 2011Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Josh Koscheck won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupMatt Hughes: WrestlervsJosh Koscheck: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Matt Hughes wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Josh Koscheck wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hughes at +350 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Koscheck enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Matt Hughes threatens submissions; Josh Koscheck has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Josh Koscheck has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Josh Koscheck has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hughes (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Hughes

Red Corner

Josh Koscheck

Blue Corner

+350

(22%)

Vegas Odds

-395

(80%)

1351

Elo

1354

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Hughes

oldest →

KOvs Renzo Gracie · Apr 10

SUBvs Ricardo Almeida · Aug 10

KOvs BJ Penn · Nov 10

latest

Josh KoscheckL5 streak

oldest →

vs Johny Hendricks · May 12

KOvs Robbie Lawler · Feb 13

KOvs Tyron Woodley · Nov 13

SUBvs Jake Ellenberger · Feb 15

SUBvs Erick Silva · Mar 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt HughesMetricJosh Koscheck

2.14

Strikes / min

1.79

1.36

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

53%

Strike defense

63%

2.95

TDs / 15 min

2.46

35%

Takedown defense

64%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt HughesJosh Koscheck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Hughes(4 fights)Josh Koscheck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt HughesTargetJosh Koscheck

By target zone

26% acc · 100%

Head

50% acc · 88%

Body

60% acc · 12%

Leg

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

29% acc · 38%

0% acc

Clinch

83% acc · 19%

Ground

100% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Hughes rounds

even

Josh Koscheck rounds

Round 1Josh Koscheck edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 53

Sig Strikes

26 / 51

26%

Sig Str %

50%

14 / 53

Total Strikes

29 / 54

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Koscheck	26 / 51	29 / 54	0 / 1	0
1	Matt Hughes	14 / 53	14 / 53	0 / 0	0

Matt Hughes

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Josh Koscheck

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9