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Welterweight

3 Rounds

BJ Penn won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1351

Elo1373

Matt HughesvsBJ PennUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

BJ Penn won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:21

Style matchupMatt Hughes: WrestlervsBJ Penn: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Matt Hughes wins(69.8%)

Actual result: BJ Penn wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hughes at +195 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Matt Hughes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
BJ Penn has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Hughes (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Hughes

Red Corner

BJ Penn

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-215

(68%)

1351

Elo

1373

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Hughes

oldest →

KOvs Renzo Gracie · Apr 10

SUBvs Ricardo Almeida · Aug 10

KOvs Josh Koscheck · Sep 11

latest

BJ PennL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17

SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18

vs Clay Guida · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt HughesMetricBJ Penn

2.14

Strikes / min

2.76

1.36

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

53%

Strike defense

56%

2.95

TDs / 15 min

1.19

35%

Takedown defense

74%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt HughesBJ Penn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Hughes(4 fights)BJ Penn(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.5|Blue +21.5

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt HughesTargetBJ Penn

By target zone

40% acc · 67%

Head

78% acc · 100%

100% acc · 33%

Body

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

67% acc · 57%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Hughes rounds

even

BJ Penn rounds

Round 1BJ Penn edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 6

Sig Strikes

7 / 9

50%

Sig Str %

77%

3 / 6

Total Strikes

7 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	BJ Penn	7 / 9	7 / 9	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Hughes	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0	0

Matt Hughes

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10