Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Matt Hamill won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1352

Matt HamillvsRoger HollettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Matt Hamill won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matt Hamill wins(72.4%)

Actual result: Matt Hamill wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hamill at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Hamill enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Hamill has 27pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Matt Hamill has 61pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Matt Hamill has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Hamill

Red Corner

Roger Hollett

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+310

(24%)

1490

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt HamillL3 streak

oldest →

vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10

vs Tito Ortiz · Oct 10

DECvs Rampage Jackson · May 11

KOvs Alexander Gustafsson · Aug 11

vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13

latest

Roger Hollett

oldest →

vs Fabio Maldonado · May 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt HamillMetricRoger Hollett

3.69

Strikes / min

1.83

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

6.47

61%

Strike defense

34%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

1.00

91%

Takedown defense

30%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11Δ 4.53 — meaningful gap-4.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt HamillRoger Hollett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Hamill(6 fights)Roger Hollett(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.1|Blue -138.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -48.0|Blue +48.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt HamillTargetRoger Hollett

By target zone

65% acc · 91%

Head

21% acc · 35%

0% acc

Body

52% acc · 54%

73% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

37% acc · 24%

Distance

35% acc · 96%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

86% acc · 74%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Hamill rounds

even

Roger Hollett rounds

Round 1Matt Hamill edged it

Sig. strikes67

Takedowns1

Control1:25

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns2

Control0:57

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Matt Hamill edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns3

Control3:38

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 144

Sig Strikes

26 / 72

55.7%

Sig Str %

35.3%

151 / 216

Total Strikes

32 / 79

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

80.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roger Hollett	8 / 28	8 / 28	0 / 0
1	Matt Hamill	67 / 96	85 / 118	1 / 1
2	Roger Hollett	13 / 30	16 / 34	0 / 0
2	Matt Hamill	4 / 18	11 / 27	2 / 3
3	Roger Hollett	5 / 14	8 / 17	0 / 0
3	Matt Hamill	23 / 30	55 / 71	3 / 4

Matt Hamill

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Roger Hollett

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights2