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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Gustafsson won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1430

Matt HamillvsAlexander GustafssonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · Saturday, August 6, 2011Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Gustafsson won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:34

Style matchupMatt Hamill: WrestlervsAlexander Gustafsson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Hamill wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Alexander Gustafsson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Hamill at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexander Gustafsson enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Matt Hamill has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Hamill

Red Corner

Alexander Gustafsson

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1490

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'5"

193.04 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Hamill

oldest →

vs Keith Jardine · Jun 10

vs Tito Ortiz · Oct 10

DECvs Rampage Jackson · May 11

vs Roger Hollett · Sep 12

vs Thiago Silva · Oct 13

latest

Alexander GustafssonL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Glover Teixeira · May 17

KOvs Jon Jones · Dec 18

SUBvs Anthony Smith · Jun 19

SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jul 20

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt HamillMetricAlexander Gustafsson

3.69

Strikes / min

4.03

3.80

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

61%

Strike defense

51%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

1.53

91%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.11evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt HamillAlexander Gustafsson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Hamill(6 fights)Alexander Gustafsson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.8|Blue -59.8

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt HamillTargetAlexander Gustafsson

By target zone

43% acc · 92%

Head

34% acc · 81%

100% acc · 8%

Body

67% acc · 11%

0% acc

Leg

75% acc · 8%

By position

36% acc · 92%

Distance

26% acc · 51%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

71% acc · 14%

Ground

68% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Hamill rounds

even

Alexander Gustafsson rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Gustafsson edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 34

Sig Strikes

37 / 98

36%

Sig Str %

34%

13 / 35

Total Strikes

41 / 104

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Gustafsson	8 / 37	8 / 37	0 / 0
1	Matt Hamill	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 3
2	Alexander Gustafsson	29 / 61	33 / 67	0 / 0
2	Matt Hamill	4 / 13	4 / 14	0 / 3

Matt Hamill

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights6

Alexander Gustafsson

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights17