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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Terrance McKinney won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1483

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

Matt FrevolavsTerrance McKinneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Terrance McKinney won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:07

Style matchupMatt Frevola: WrestlervsTerrance McKinney: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Matt Frevola wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Terrance McKinney wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Frevola at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Terrance McKinney is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Matt Frevola has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Terrance McKinney has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Frevola

Red Corner

Terrance McKinney

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1483

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt FrevolaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22

KOvs Drew Dober · May 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24

vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25

latest

Terrance McKinney

oldest →

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26

KOvs King Green · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt FrevolaMetricTerrance McKinney

3.30

Strikes / min

6.53

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.45

56%

Strike defense

43%

2.34

TDs / 15 min

3.31

40%

Takedown defense

72%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 3.54 — meaningful gap+3.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt FrevolaTerrance McKinney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Frevola(10 fights)Terrance McKinney(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.5|Blue +20.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt FrevolaTargetTerrance McKinney

By target zone

Head

80% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

Distance

100% acc · 50%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Frevola rounds

even

Terrance McKinney rounds

Round 1Terrance McKinney edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 0

Sig Strikes

4 / 5

—

Sig Str %

80%

0 / 0

Total Strikes

5 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Terrance McKinney	4 / 5	5 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Frevola	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14