Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Polo Reyes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1483
Matt Frevola
Elo1491

Matt FrevolavsPolo ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Sunday, January 14, 2018St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Polo Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:00

Model Prediction: Polo Reyes wins(71.5%)

Actual result: Polo Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Polo Reyes at +185 American odds

+$185 profit

$285 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Polo Reyes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Polo Reyes is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 80% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Frevola
Red Corner
VS
Polo Reyes
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1483
Elo
1491
36
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt FrevolaL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22
W
KOvs Drew Dober · May 23
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23
L
KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24
L
vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25
latest
Polo ReyesL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cesar Arzamendia · Nov 15
W
KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Jun 16
W
DECvs Jason Novelli · Nov 16
L
KOvs James Vick · May 17
L
KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt FrevolaMetricPolo Reyes
3.30
Strikes / min
—
3.76
Strikes absorbed / min
—
56%
Strike defense
—
2.34
TDs / 15 min
—
40%
Takedown defense
—
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1534Strikes— vs 52.8Takedowns— vs 0.0Sub Atts— vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.1
Matt FrevolaPolo Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Matt Frevola(10 fights)Polo Reyes(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -8.3|Blue +8.3
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +47.6|Blue -47.6
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Polo Reyes

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2