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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Frevola won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1483

Elo1481

Matt FrevolavsOttman AzaitarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Matt Frevola won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:30

Style matchupMatt Frevola: WrestlervsOttman Azaitar: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Ottman Azaitar wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Matt Frevola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ottman Azaitar at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Ottman Azaitar has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Ottman Azaitar is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Ottman Azaitar has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ottman Azaitar (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Frevola

Red Corner

Ottman Azaitar

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1483

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt FrevolaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22

KOvs Drew Dober · May 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24

vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25

latest

Ottman AzaitarL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Teemu Packalen · Sep 19

KOvs Khama Worthy · Sep 20

KOvs Francisco Prado · Jul 23

KOvs Michael Johnson · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt FrevolaMetricOttman Azaitar

3.30

Strikes / min

4.43

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

4.11

56%

Strike defense

52%

2.34

TDs / 15 min

0.00

40%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt FrevolaOttman Azaitar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Frevola(10 fights)Ottman Azaitar(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -497.0|Blue +497.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt FrevolaTargetOttman Azaitar

By target zone

42% acc · 91%

Head

35% acc · 60%

50% acc · 9%

Body

80% acc · 40%

0% acc

Leg

By position

32% acc · 64%

Distance

48% acc · 100%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Frevola rounds

even

Ottman Azaitar rounds

Round 1Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 27

Sig Strikes

10 / 22

40%

Sig Str %

45%

12 / 28

Total Strikes

11 / 23

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ottman Azaitar	10 / 22	11 / 23	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Frevola	11 / 27	12 / 28	0 / 0	0

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Ottman Azaitar

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5