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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Frevola won · S-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1494

Matt FrevolavsLuis PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Matt Frevola won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Frevola: WrestlervsLuis Pena: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Matt Frevola wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Matt Frevola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Frevola at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
Luis Pena has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Frevola

Red Corner

Luis Pena

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1483

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt FrevolaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22

KOvs Drew Dober · May 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24

vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25

latest

Luis Pena

oldest →

vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19

vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20

SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20

vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt FrevolaMetricLuis Pena

3.30

Strikes / min

3.66

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.12

56%

Strike defense

51%

2.34

TDs / 15 min

1.17

40%

Takedown defense

48%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt FrevolaLuis Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Frevola(10 fights)Luis Pena(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.4|Blue +10.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt FrevolaTargetLuis Pena

By target zone

33% acc · 56%

Head

41% acc · 84%

59% acc · 21%

Body

47% acc · 14%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

44% acc · 96%

Distance

37% acc · 73%

40% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 16%

Ground

67% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Frevola rounds

even

Luis Pena rounds

Round 1Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control1:07

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Luis Pena edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control0:43

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 110

Sig Strikes

51 / 120

43%

Sig Str %

41%

51 / 115

Total Strikes

60 / 129

4 / 7

TDs

1 / 2

61%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:50

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Luis Pena	13 / 35	21 / 43	1 / 2	0
1	Matt Frevola	15 / 45	15 / 45	2 / 2	0
2	Luis Pena	26 / 49	27 / 50	0 / 0	2
2	Matt Frevola	10 / 26	13 / 31	1 / 3	0
3	Luis Pena	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Matt Frevola	23 / 39	23 / 39	1 / 2	0

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Luis Pena

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8