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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Matt Frevola won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1483

Elo1465

Matt FrevolavsGenaro ValdezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Saturday, January 22, 2022Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Matt Frevola won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:15

Style matchupMatt Frevola: WrestlervsGenaro Valdez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Genaro Valdez wins(52.9%)

Actual result: Matt Frevola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Genaro Valdez at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Frevola

Red Corner

Genaro Valdez

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1483

Elo

1465

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt FrevolaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22

KOvs Drew Dober · May 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23

KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24

vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25

latest

Genaro ValdezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Natan Levy · Dec 22

vs Evan Elder · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt FrevolaMetricGenaro Valdez

3.30

Strikes / min

4.08

3.76

Strikes absorbed / min

7.16

56%

Strike defense

48%

2.34

TDs / 15 min

1.54

40%

Takedown defense

36%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.46Δ 2.62 — meaningful gap-3.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt FrevolaGenaro Valdez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Frevola(10 fights)Genaro Valdez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.6|Blue -18.6

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt FrevolaTargetGenaro Valdez

By target zone

60% acc · 93%

Head

25% acc · 90%

43% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 2%

Leg

50% acc · 10%

By position

41% acc · 18%

Distance

26% acc · 70%

40% acc · 10%

Clinch

27% acc · 30%

73% acc · 72%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Frevola rounds

even

Genaro Valdez rounds

Round 1Matt Frevola edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns0

Control1:07

Knockdowns4

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 101

Sig Strikes

10 / 38

59%

Sig Str %

26%

71 / 114

Total Strikes

10 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:07

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Genaro Valdez	10 / 38	10 / 38	0 / 1	0
1	Matt Frevola	60 / 101	71 / 114	0 / 0	0

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Genaro Valdez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3