Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Benoit Saint Denis won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1483
Matt Frevola
Elo1546
Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Matt FrevolavsBenoit Saint DenisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Benoit Saint Denis won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:31

Style matchupMatt Frevola: WrestlervsBenoit Saint Denis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(84.4%)

Actual result: Benoit Saint Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -238 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Benoit Saint Denis has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Benoit Saint Denis is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Matt Frevola has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Matt Frevola has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Benoit Saint Denis has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Benoit Saint Denis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Frevola
Red Corner
VS
Benoit Saint Denis
Blue Corner
+180
(36%)
Vegas Odds
-238
(70%)
1483
Elo
1546
36
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt FrevolaL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22
W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22
W
KOvs Drew Dober · May 23
L
KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24
L
vs Kyle Nelson · Oct 25
latest
Benoit Saint Denis
oldest →
W
SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25
W
SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25
W
KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25
W
KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26
L
SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt FrevolaMetricBenoit Saint Denis
3.30
Strikes / min
5.62
3.76
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
56%
Strike defense
42%
2.34
TDs / 15 min
4.19
40%
Takedown defense
72%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1562 vs 1559Strikes3.7 vs 5.7Takedowns2.6 vs 4.8Sub Atts0.90 vs 1.50Form0.9 vs 0.9
Matt FrevolaBenoit Saint Denis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701498152515531580← oldermost recent →
Matt Frevola(10 fights)Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -62.9|Blue +62.9
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +119.0|Blue -119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt FrevolaTargetBenoit Saint Denis

By target zone

2
33% acc · 40%
Head
3
43% acc · 50%
3
100% acc · 60%
Body
1
50% acc · 17%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 33%

By position

4
50% acc · 80%
Distance
4
44% acc · 67%
1
100% acc · 20%
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Matt Frevola rounds
0
even
1
Benoit Saint Denis rounds
Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns2
Control0:25
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
5 / 9
Sig Strikes
6 / 11
55%
Sig Str %
54%
7 / 12
Total Strikes
10 / 15
2 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
0:25
Ctrl Time
0:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Benoit Saint Denis6 / 1110 / 150 / 00
1Matt Frevola5 / 97 / 122 / 20

Matt Frevola

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13