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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Randy Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1498

Matt DwyervsRandy BrownUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Randy Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Matt Dwyer wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Randy Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Dwyer at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Matt Dwyer

Red Corner

Randy Brown

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1356

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Dwyer

oldest →

KOvs Albert Tumenov · Oct 14

KOvs William Patolino · Feb 15

vs Alan Jouban · Jul 15

latest

Randy BrownL2 streak

oldest →

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 24

vs Bryan Battle · Dec 24

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Apr 25

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 25

DECvs Kevin Holland · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt DwyerMetricRandy Brown

2.57

Strikes / min

4.39

3.24

Strikes absorbed / min

3.35

54%

Strike defense

53%

0.44

TDs / 15 min

0.71

60%

Takedown defense

74%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.67Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap+1.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt DwyerRandy Brown

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Dwyer(4 fights)Randy Brown(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -141.4|Blue +141.4

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt DwyerTargetRandy Brown

By target zone

26% acc · 35%

Head

37% acc · 65%

64% acc · 15%

Body

83% acc · 21%

96% acc · 50%

Leg

58% acc · 15%

By position

43% acc · 74%

Distance

30% acc · 48%

67% acc · 26%

Clinch

79% acc · 48%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Dwyer rounds

even

Randy Brown rounds

Round 1Matt Dwyer edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:29

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:45Control

Round 3Randy Brown edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control1:21

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:45Control

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 97

Sig Strikes

48 / 108

48.7%

Sig Str %

46%

50 / 101

Total Strikes

61 / 122

1 / 8

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:50

Ctrl Time

3:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Randy Brown	13 / 40	13 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Dwyer	18 / 46	18 / 46	0 / 0	0
2	Randy Brown	16 / 26	25 / 36	1 / 1	1
2	Matt Dwyer	18 / 28	18 / 28	1 / 6	0
3	Randy Brown	19 / 42	23 / 46	0 / 3	0
3	Matt Dwyer	10 / 23	14 / 27	0 / 2	0

Matt Dwyer

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4

Randy Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21