Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Brown won · SUB R1
Elo1499
Matt Brown
Elo1492
Tim Means

Matt BrownvsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · Saturday, July 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:44

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsTim Means: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Tim Means wins(57.7%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Means at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Tim Means
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1499
Elo
1492
45
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown
oldest →
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20
L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21
W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21
L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22
W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23
latest
Tim MeansL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Max Griffin · Oct 22
L
SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23
W
KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23
L
KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24
L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricTim Means
3.76
Strikes / min
5.04
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
55%
Strike defense
60%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.14
63%
Takedown defense
64%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1549 vs 1554Strikes36.8 vs 46.6Takedowns1.2 vs 0.8Sub Atts1.16 vs 0.22Form-0.3 vs 0.8
Matt BrownTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Matt Brown(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +6.9|Blue -6.9
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetTim Means

By target zone

18
60% acc · 72%
Head
13
41% acc · 81%
6
100% acc · 24%
Body
3
38% acc · 19%
1
100% acc · 4%
Leg
0

By position

16
57% acc · 64%
Distance
14
39% acc · 88%
8
100% acc · 32%
Clinch
2
50% acc · 13%
1
100% acc · 4%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Brown rounds
0
even
0
Tim Means rounds
Round 1Matt Brown edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns1
Control1:47
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
25 / 37
Sig Strikes
16 / 40
67%
Sig Str %
40%
26 / 38
Total Strikes
24 / 48
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 2
100%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:47
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tim Means16 / 4024 / 480 / 20
1Matt Brown25 / 3726 / 381 / 11

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights29