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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1482

Matt BrownvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 145: Jones vs Evans · Saturday, April 21, 2012Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsStephen Thompson: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(53.1%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +200 American odds

+$200 profit

$300 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1499

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Stephen ThompsonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricStephen Thompson

3.76

Strikes / min

4.05

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

55%

Strike defense

54%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.23

63%

Takedown defense

63%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.1|Blue -16.1

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

34% acc · 56%

Head

46% acc · 79%

86% acc · 17%

Body

75% acc · 18%

91% acc · 28%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

32% acc · 47%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

76% acc · 44%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns3

Control3:19

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Round 2Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:14

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stephen Thompson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:30

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 77

Sig Strikes

67 / 133

47.3%

Sig Str %

51.7%

91 / 148

Total Strikes

78 / 146

5 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

39%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:03

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stephen Thompson	8 / 14	13 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Brown	5 / 11	15 / 24	3 / 7	0
2	Stephen Thompson	30 / 64	35 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Brown	15 / 26	32 / 45	1 / 4	0
3	Stephen Thompson	29 / 55	30 / 56	0 / 0	0
3	Matt Brown	16 / 40	44 / 79	1 / 2	1

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21