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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Seth Baczynski won · SUB R2

Elo1499

Elo1354

Matt BrownvsSeth BaczynskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Seth Baczynski won

SUB · Round 2 · 0:42

Model Prediction: Seth Baczynski wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Seth Baczynski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Seth Baczynski at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Seth Baczynski enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Seth Baczynski has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Seth Baczynski threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.
Matt Brown has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Seth Baczynski

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1499

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Seth BaczynskiL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brian Melancon · Jul 13

vs Neil Magny · Nov 13

vs Thiago Alves · Apr 14

KOvs Alan Jouban · Aug 14

KOvs Leon Edwards · Apr 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricSeth Baczynski

3.76

Strikes / min

3.08

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

55%

Strike defense

51%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.89

63%

Takedown defense

48%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownSeth Baczynski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Seth Baczynski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +144.1|Blue -144.1

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +83.0|Blue -83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetSeth Baczynski

By target zone

27% acc · 21%

Head

34% acc · 82%

87% acc · 68%

Body

75% acc · 18%

50% acc · 11%

Leg

0% acc

By position

36% acc · 42%

Distance

24% acc · 47%

92% acc · 58%

Clinch

54% acc · 41%

Ground

100% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Seth Baczynski rounds

Round 1Seth Baczynski edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:30

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:26

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 34

Sig Strikes

17 / 49

46.5%

Sig Str %

31.5%

28 / 43

Total Strikes

22 / 55

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

20%

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

2:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Seth Baczynski	15 / 42	20 / 48	1 / 5	0
1	Matt Brown	17 / 28	26 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Seth Baczynski	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0	1
2	Matt Brown	2 / 6	2 / 6	1 / 1	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Seth Baczynski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11