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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1499
Matt Brown
Elo1364
Mike Pyle

Matt BrownvsMike PyleUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 17, 2013Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:29

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsMike Pyle: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mike Pyle enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Mike Pyle has lost 86% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Mike Pyle
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1499
Elo
1364
45
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'0"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown
oldest →
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20
L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21
W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21
L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22
W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23
latest
Mike PyleL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Colby Covington · May 15
W
KOvs Sean Spencer · Feb 16
L
KOvs Alberto Mina · Jul 16
L
KOvs Alex Garcia · Dec 16
L
KOvs Zak Ottow · Mar 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricMike Pyle
3.76
Strikes / min
2.74
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
2.84
55%
Strike defense
60%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.80
63%
Takedown defense
70%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1548 vs 1599Strikes31.1 vs 20.3Takedowns1.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.20 vs 0.91Form1.0 vs 0.9
Matt BrownMike Pyle

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Matt Brown(10 fights)Mike Pyle(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.4|Blue -134.4
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetMike Pyle

By target zone

8
53% acc · 80%
Head
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 10%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 10%
Leg
0

By position

4
36% acc · 40%
Distance
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 10%
Clinch
0
5
83% acc · 50%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Brown rounds
0
even
0
Mike Pyle rounds
Round 1Matt Brown edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:06
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
10 / 18
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
55%
Sig Str %
0%
10 / 18
Total Strikes
0 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:06
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mike Pyle0 / 30 / 30 / 00
1Matt Brown10 / 1810 / 180 / 00

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25

Mike Pyle

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16