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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1351

Matt BrownvsLuis RamosUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida · Friday, June 22, 2012Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:20

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(73.9%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Luis Ramos has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Matt Brown has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luis Ramos has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Luis Ramos

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1499

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

190.5 cm

Reach

183 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Luis Ramos

oldest →

KOvs Erick Silva · Aug 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricLuis Ramos

3.76

Strikes / min

2.40

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

5.60

55%

Strike defense

42%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

1.50

63%

Takedown defense

100%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 4.04 — meaningful gap-3.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownLuis Ramos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Luis Ramos(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +147.1|Blue -147.1

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.9|Blue -1.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -238.0|Blue +238.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetLuis Ramos

By target zone

47% acc · 58%

Head

15% acc · 35%

100% acc · 27%

Body

100% acc · 10%

80% acc · 15%

Leg

92% acc · 55%

By position

43% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

93% acc · 50%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Luis Ramos rounds

Round 1Luis Ramos edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:09

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:05

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:30Control

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 88

Sig Strikes

20 / 61

55%

Sig Str %

33%

74 / 110

Total Strikes

26 / 72

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

3:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luis Ramos	11 / 27	13 / 30	1 / 2
1	Matt Brown	13 / 30	22 / 39	0 / 1
2	Luis Ramos	9 / 34	13 / 42	0 / 3
2	Matt Brown	39 / 58	52 / 71	0 / 2

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Luis Ramos

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach—

Fights2