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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1499

Elo1491

Matt BrownvsJordan MeinUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · Saturday, April 20, 2013San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:00

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsJordan Mein: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +290 American odds

+$290 profit

$390 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Jordan Mein has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jordan Mein has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Jordan Mein

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1499

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Jordan MeinW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Alves · Jan 15

vs Emil Meek · Dec 16

vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 17

vs Erick Silva · Dec 17

vs Alex Morono · Jul 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricJordan Mein

3.76

Strikes / min

3.35

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.55

55%

Strike defense

69%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

1.56

63%

Takedown defense

66%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownJordan Mein

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Jordan Mein(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.4|Blue -7.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetJordan Mein

By target zone

40% acc · 68%

Head

37% acc · 75%

81% acc · 33%

Body

63% acc · 21%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

31% acc · 43%

Distance

40% acc · 71%

71% acc · 30%

Clinch

25% acc · 4%

85% acc · 28%

Ground

50% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Jordan Mein rounds

Round 1Jordan Mein edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:35

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 84

Sig Strikes

24 / 58

57%

Sig Str %

21%

41 / 85

Total Strikes

25 / 59

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:35

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jordan Mein	24 / 57	25 / 58	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Brown	22 / 61	22 / 61	0 / 1	1
2	Jordan Mein	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
2	Matt Brown	18 / 23	19 / 24	0 / 0	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Jordan Mein

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9