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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Matt Brown won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1490

Matt BrownvsJohn HowardUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · Sunday, June 26, 2011Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsJohn Howard: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(61.3%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +235 American odds

+$235 profit

$335 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

John Howard

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1499

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'7"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

John Howard

oldest →

vs Ryan LaFlare · Apr 14

vs Brian Ebersole · Sep 14

KOvs Lorenz Larkin · Jan 15

vs Cathal Pendred · Jul 15

KOvs Tim Means · Dec 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricJohn Howard

3.76

Strikes / min

2.15

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.08

55%

Strike defense

51%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

2.70

63%

Takedown defense

53%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownJohn Howard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)John Howard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.1|Blue -8.1

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetJohn Howard

By target zone

37% acc · 68%

Head

23% acc · 15%

100% acc · 18%

Body

67% acc · 10%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

79% acc · 75%

By position

42% acc · 79%

Distance

59% acc · 85%

71% acc · 13%

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

60% acc · 8%

Ground

67% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

John Howard rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:43

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:49Control

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:03

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 3John Howard edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control0:48

5Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 83

Sig Strikes

20 / 35

45.7%

Sig Str %

53.3%

96 / 145

Total Strikes

29 / 46

3 / 4

TDs

5 / 11

83.3%

TD %

36.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:34

Ctrl Time

6:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Howard	12 / 19	16 / 23	2 / 4	0
1	Matt Brown	24 / 53	43 / 73	1 / 1	1
2	John Howard	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 2	0
2	Matt Brown	7 / 15	26 / 36	1 / 2	2
3	John Howard	5 / 9	10 / 16	3 / 5	0
3	Matt Brown	7 / 15	27 / 36	1 / 1	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

John Howard

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11