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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jake Ellenberger won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1499

Elo1367

Matt BrownvsJake EllenbergerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · Saturday, July 30, 2016Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Jake Ellenberger won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:46

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsJake Ellenberger: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(73.1%)

Actual result: Jake Ellenberger wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at -310 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jake Ellenberger enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Jake Ellenberger has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Jake Ellenberger has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Matt Brown has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Jake Ellenberger

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+255

(28%)

1499

Elo

1367

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

190.5 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Jake EllenbergerL5 streak

oldest →

vs Tarec Saffiedine · Jan 16

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Dec 16

KOvs Mike Perry · Apr 17

KOvs Ben Saunders · Jun 18

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Aug 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricJake Ellenberger

3.76

Strikes / min

2.47

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

55%

Strike defense

60%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

2.04

63%

Takedown defense

86%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 1.20 — meaningful gap-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownJake Ellenberger

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Jake Ellenberger(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.4|Blue -131.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetJake Ellenberger

By target zone

33% acc · 71%

Head

58% acc · 86%

100% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

33% acc · 71%

Distance

47% acc · 33%

100% acc · 29%

Clinch

Ground

74% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Jake Ellenberger rounds

Round 1Jake Ellenberger edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 17

Sig Strikes

21 / 34

41%

Sig Str %

61%

7 / 17

Total Strikes

29 / 43

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jake Ellenberger	21 / 34	29 / 43	0 / 0	0
1	Matt Brown	7 / 17	7 / 17	0 / 1	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Jake Ellenberger

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights19