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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1499

Elo1363

Matt BrownvsErick SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:11

Style matchupMatt Brown: Submission grapplervsErick Silva: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(78.6%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Brown is a KO finisher (77% of wins). Erick Silva has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Erick Silva threatens submissions; Matt Brown has lost 42% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown

Red Corner

Erick Silva

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1499

Elo

1363

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

190.5 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20

vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21

KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22

KOvs Court McGee · May 23

latest

Erick SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 15

KOvs Nordine Taleb · Mar 16

SUBvs Luan Chagas · Sep 16

KOvs Yancy Medeiros · Jun 17

vs Jordan Mein · Dec 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricErick Silva

3.76

Strikes / min

2.50

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.18

55%

Strike defense

49%

1.68

TDs / 15 min

0.85

63%

Takedown defense

56%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.84Δ 2.52 — meaningful gap-1.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Matt BrownErick Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Matt Brown(10 fights)Erick Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.5|Blue -135.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetErick Silva

By target zone

101

70% acc · 86%

Head

43% acc · 68%

76% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 24%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

63% acc · 37%

Distance

32% acc · 52%

77% acc · 31%

Clinch

75% acc · 12%

77% acc · 31%

Ground

100% acc · 36%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Matt Brown rounds

even

Erick Silva rounds

Round 1Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns3

Control0:48

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:32Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes54

Takedowns1

Control1:34

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3Matt Brown edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:26

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

118 / 166

Sig Strikes

25 / 54

70.3%

Sig Str %

36.7%

161 / 213

Total Strikes

39 / 71

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:48

Ctrl Time

3:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Erick Silva	17 / 29	30 / 45	0 / 1	1
1	Matt Brown	40 / 56	42 / 58	3 / 3	0
2	Erick Silva	7 / 19	8 / 20	0 / 2	0
2	Matt Brown	54 / 75	83 / 106	1 / 1	4
3	Erick Silva	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0	0
3	Matt Brown	24 / 35	36 / 49	1 / 1	0

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights25

Erick Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15