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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Matt Brown won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1499
Matt Brown
Elo1493
Diego Sanchez

Matt BrownvsDiego SanchezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Matt Brown won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:44

Model Prediction: Matt Brown wins(63.4%)

Actual result: Matt Brown wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Brown at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matt Brown has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Diego Sanchez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Matt Brown
Red Corner
VS
Diego Sanchez
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+290
(26%)
1499
Elo
1493
45
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'0"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Matt Brown
oldest →
L
KOvs Miguel Baeza · May 20
L
vs Carlos Condit · Jan 21
W
KOvs Dhiego Lima · Jun 21
L
vs Bryan Barberena · Mar 22
W
KOvs Court McGee · May 23
latest
Diego Sanchez
oldest →
W
vs Craig White · Sep 18
W
KOvs Mickey Gall · Mar 19
L
vs Michael Chiesa · Jul 19
W
vs Michel Pereira · Feb 20
L
vs Jake Matthews · Sep 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Matt BrownMetricDiego Sanchez
3.76
Strikes / min
2.69
2.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.02
55%
Strike defense
56%
1.68
TDs / 15 min
1.51
63%
Takedown defense
46%
1.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.84Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap-0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1501Strikes35.3 vs 34.1Takedowns1.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts1.04 vs 0.69Form-0.7 vs -0.2
Matt BrownDiego Sanchez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Matt Brown(10 fights)Diego Sanchez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.9|Blue -5.9
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +133.0|Blue -133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Matt BrownTargetDiego Sanchez

By target zone

14
47% acc · 78%
Head
7
58% acc · 58%
2
100% acc · 11%
Body
2
40% acc · 17%
2
100% acc · 11%
Leg
3
100% acc · 25%

By position

12
43% acc · 67%
Distance
10
56% acc · 83%
6
100% acc · 33%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 17%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Matt Brown rounds
0
even
0
Diego Sanchez rounds
Round 1Matt Brown edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:29Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
18 / 34
Sig Strikes
12 / 20
52%
Sig Str %
60%
20 / 36
Total Strikes
13 / 21
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 3
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
1:29

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Sanchez12 / 2013 / 210 / 30
1Matt Brown18 / 3420 / 360 / 00

Matt Brown

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights25

Diego Sanchez

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights19